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Section 1-
RAPTOR software is a modeling software program for:
Reliability (tells you how many failures to expect),
Availability (tells you how much
uptime to expect), and
Maintability
(tells you about maintenance down time and times between maintenance demands)
A RAM model tells you numbers for
how your system operates:
1. Yes,
I know you’re an expert about things such as pumps, compressors, furnaces, heat
exchangers, and vessels!
You’ve also got information about their ages to failure and times for
repairs. You can also organize the data
into a statistical format for use in a RAM model to forecast how well things
will perform in the future.
It’s important to make your data speak for future events in building a model
for new process and equipment. We need the facts.
Other web pages at http://www.barringer1.com
tell you how to reduce these facts into the few details you need for the RAM
model.
2. Yes,
I know you have great engineers who fit the system together with expertise
about how the blocks are conveniently arranged for a production process.
These same “fathers” or “mothers” of the process often will look you in the eye
and deny the deteriorating effects of time and loads that cause entropy changes
resulting in failures of “their systems—think of their children”. Our provincial outlook makes it difficult to
admit the facts about how the creations we conceived will fail.
All systems fail—the key is when, where, and how often. All systems require maintenance. We can’t repeal the natural laws of entropy
changes. This means we must account for
the failures and the effects of the failures as the model reflects real-life
conditions.
3. Yes,
I know you have experts in the process and how the system should perform on a
steady-state basis.
Unfortunately we design processes and equipment for steady-state
conditions. However, we operate the
systems in a dynamic mode. What we
design and how we operate them often incurs problems which we need to predict.
Systems deteriorate and systems fail so use the facts from your records to gain
details for your models.
4. What
you rarely know, on a factual basis, is how the installed system will really
function for number of failures, availability, and maintenance demands. The bottom line of these numbers must be
reflected into time and money.
Few engineers can support the ideas in items 1-4 with engineering calculations. They often resort to opinions--not facts. For business results we need calculated facts before we build so we can convert the facts into $ statements. We must make business decisions from the technical details.
Why model?
· We need more operating facts summarized into numbers and less opinions devoid of numbers!
· We need operational details before we commit to bricks and mortar in a plant site.
· We need the facts to match the economics for the plant or process.
· We need these calculated facts from the model on one side of one sheet of paper.
· We need a practical representation of our operating plans into a computer simulation model so we can watch it run under simulated conditions.
· RAPTOR helps work out the details using a Monte Carlo model (allows randomness in how the equipment operates before it fails and it also allows randomness in how long it takes to repair equipment) so we can visualize what’s happening to our overall system and components in the system.
· Data for RAPTOR models should come from your own maintenance data systems. Weibull databases are available to represent life/death of equipment. Other data sources are available in the reading list on this website with data sources marked by a dagger symbol, †.
RAPTOR is useful for engineers for
converting technical details into money for life cycle cost considerations. It does not require statisticians to build
the model or run the model. It lets you
perform “What If?” exercises to arrive at the best tradeoffs for the system. Best of all, the system produces numbers by
simulation using your facts—not opinions.
You can learn what is going wrong and where you can find some
advantageous over your competitor by building the plant and operating it as a
computer model before you install the equipment. Rearrangement of plants and processes by
cutting torch is an expensive process compared to building a simple RAM
model. Remember the techie details are not the primary important issue in
most models—the
money is what’s important; and time/money is what the business must consider—of
course we use the technical details to get to the money!
You can download some technical papers (as
PDF files) showing RAPTOR models and life cycle costs from this site—just
follow the hyperlinks below. Three
papers listed below show how RAPTOR has been used for making life cycle costs decisions
using the factual details from the field of reliability engineering and processes to arrive at the
lowest long term cost of ownership (this is concept important to the
stockholders view and requires that engineers must think like MBA’s as they act like engineers):
1. How To Justify Equipment Improvement Using Life Cycle Costs and Reliability Principles
3. How To Justify Machinery Improvements Using Reliability Engineering Principles
Other life cycle cost papers are
available for download as PDF files or you can go to the short list at the
bottom of the LCC training page.
Section 2-
You can down load the old
RAPTOR reliability block diagram software, at no cost. These old software programs were produced by
the US Air Force. Two good reasons to
use the handy RAPTOR software for reliability block diagram modeling using
1) It’s free, and
2) A novice can use the software after
10 minutes of play-time which makes the software very productive.
On this site you can download two older Air Force copies at no-charge.
RAPTOR Version 2.99 ßdownload
only for the help file. (Read the
RAPTOR Acronyms at http://www.acronymfinder.com
)
RAPTOR Version 4.0S
ßSee
Section 3
below (for better software). Version 4.0S is the last version without a copy write produced by the
Air Force (Note: you can get later and better versions of this software which
is now produced by ARINC at no cost as described below in Section 3). Please note the lack of downward file
compatibility by version—upward file compatibility is OK.
Section 3-
ARINC has moved
the former US Air Force software into the commercial area with their greatly
improved version 6.0. Some freebies of
version 5.0 (now known as RAPTOR Classic)
are still available and both version carry a copy write mark.
You can download RAPTOR version 5.0+ by simply registering with ARINC site. Version 5.0+ does not have a help file. ARINC sells training classes to generate revenue to support their modeling effort. The RAPTOR team asks that you notify them by Email during the registration process when you down load from the ARINC site so they can maintain a list of users for update information. So you have two options:
1. Download the current versions (recommended).
Go to the ARINC RAPTOR webpage. In the left hand column, click on version 7.0
which will take you to the features description of the latest
Download RAPTOR 7.0 (you
can build about 10 blocks in this fully functional latest version with flow capability but without tankage). See the comparison table
to read the limits of the student and demo versions of the software.
Then when you submit the form (yes, you’ve got to fill out all the boxes or
nothing will happen) you will go to a page that allows selecting the version of
RAPTOR that you need. The RAPTOR team
will only send you one email so you won’t get spammed with unwanted email. Both versions are available for download at
no cost. Fully functioning RAPTOR 7.0
for ~250 blocks is available for sale at a modest price.
2. Download the older version of RAPTOR software
without any sign-up forms (not the best alternative but it is the alternative
for remaining anonymous).
Click here to go to the
down load page for RAPTOR software version 2.99. This version has a help file and is a
self-extracting file called SETUP.EXE. This is a free, non-copyright, program.
Download time is about 12 minutes ± for this 1.4 Meg file. This old file is
recommended because it has a help file accessible directly from the program. Or download RAPTOR version 4.0S (without the help
file). Both programs are now considered
obsolete.
Section 4-
A couple of hints on how to get
started with RAPTOR--
First thing to build a model, in
versions below 5.0, after you open RAPTOR is to put a START node on the left hand side, then put a STOP node on the right hand side of the grid.
Do this by clicking on EDIT, click on ADD, click on NODE
and select the proper node (by the way, I always add extra CONNECT nodes because it seems the number of
blocks grow like Topsey and you should freely add
intermediate CONNECT nodes as it simplifies your life. Exit the nodes selection by right mouse
click.
Second thing is to add blocks
for each element in your model.
Do this by click on EDIT, click on ADD, click on BLOCKS
and put them into a logical/functional diagram.
If you have “no clue” as to the life distribution, always choose EXPONENTIAL and select the Mean, i.e., MTTF (leave the location as
zero) and select LOGNORMAL and select Mean,
i.e., MTTR with the default standard
deviation (actually it’s a shape factor for the lognormal as it has
no dimensions because it’s a lognormal value) of 2 units. When you’ve added the correct number of
blocks, right mouse click to exit the block addition. By the way, all units for MTTF and MTTR must
be consistent—let’s assume you use hours!!
You can get some ideas about repair times from the example in the July ’01 Problem Of The Month.
Third thing is to add
links.
Do this by click on EDIT, click on ADD, click on LINKS,
and then click with drag at the center of
the start node and while holding down your left mouse key, drag the link to the
next node/block. Repeat until the model
is linked together. Exit the link mode
by right mouse click.
Fourth thing is to click on FILE (now is a good time to save your file) and
click on SIMULATE.
If you can’t get to the simulate button, try a right mouse click! A dialog box will ask for your STOP time i.e., mission time—let’s assume it’s
8760 hours. The dialog box will also ask
for the NUMBER of simulations—choose 100
or more because not every block in most diagrams will have a failure in a
single year and you should work on the basis of “safety in numbers”.
Fifth thing is to follow your
nose for the balance of the details you will need.
As a memory jogger, when you select Weibull distributions for failure modes:
the
shape factor = b = slope of the Weibull
line and
the
scale factor = h = characteristic age to
failure, and
the
location = t0 = correction of the time origin. (Set this value to
zero unless----see below.)
The correction of the time origin can be to the left (i.e., failures begin
before you put the equipment into service) or to the right (i.e., a “failure
free interval” prevents failures before a given time). The usual value for location = t0 = correction of the time origin should be zero. To get a correct value for t0
you will need:
1)
a sample size of at lest 21 failures to document a t0 value, plus
2)
a physical explanation of why this condition is true and
3)
other details outlined in section 3 of The New Weibull Handbook
So, the bottom line is to set location
= t0 = 0 unless you have overwhelming evidence that supports your
hypothesis!
Sixth thing is convert the results
from the model into time and money.
Everyone understands time and money (we usually have too little of both!). Don’t give your audience a root canal by
endlessly speaking of the technical details—in the end, it’s all about time, money, and alternatives—this is what
you must talk about!
Section 5-
Thanks to Ken
Murphy and Chuck
Carter from ARINC, along with Larry Wolfe, formerly of AIRNC, for assistance in providing this useful
software on a remote site. These three people are from the
original Air Force reliability team
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