
Excel^{®}


1.

Random Numbers
 The
spreadsheet contains details about:

2.

Fix
When Broken Life Cycle Cost Simulation – The
spreadsheet contains Weibull failure details for a single component on a fix
when broken basis that generates life cycle costs details and generates NPV
calculations.

3.

Life
Cycle Cost Simple Model With Many Items – The spreadsheet follows a fix
when broken strategy to calculate life cycle cost for many items including
capability for annual electrical costs, etc. and to produce a NPV
calculation.

4.

Planned
Replacement Life Cycle Cost Simulation – The spreadsheet allows
selection of a timed replacement strategy for a single cost item to calculate
life cycle cost details and generate NPV calculations.

5.

Key Performance Production
Criteria – The Monte Carlo spreadsheet shows how typical key performance indicator
(KPI) statistics relate to Weibull process reliability plot characteristic
value for the best 5 consecutives day average, best 7 consecutive day
average, best 20 consecutive day average, etc. with errors shown as % when
measured to the Weibull process plots characteristic values. See the May ’98 Problem Of The Month.

6.

Inspection Test –

7.

MCSAMPLE—Download a small subset of MonteCarloSimulationS which is a free, complimentary software. This demonstration software shows how to use random numbers in a spreadsheet environment to simulate the reliability of simple and complicated systems. If you find these freebie models are helpful for solving your problems, see details below for purchasing the full set of software. The MCSAMPLE.XLS file contains: · Why use

8.

Paycheck Simulation This simulation is described in the April ‘04 problem concerning Process Reliability Line Segments. When you have a
production process, it will demonstrate variability in output which is
described by the Weibull beta value.
The Weibull characteristic value eta will describe the magnitude of
the output. A process reliability
value describes the point where commoncause variability gives way to
specialcause variability. Daily
production output drives the monthly paycheck for the company. The paycheck simulation is intended to show individuals the connection with the process output measures and how similar variability would appear in their monthly paycheck. [If you’ve just declared you don’t want variability in your monthly paycheck maybe the light bulb is about to glow over your head as you make the connection between expectations for the company to control output variability!yes, I know you want the big positive variations but not the downside variations. Got it?]
For example of denial, read the book by Dr. Elisabeth Kübler Ross,
M.D., on Death
and Dying. Her book was based on observations of patients dying in
1.
Denial, ßWhy should we change? Don’t you know we’re #1! This program will blow over. Sit tight.
2. Anger, ßThe white shirts hate us, we’re
doing the best we can! They’re
punishing us.
3.
Bargaining,
ßWould 10% more output make you
happy, and then get off our back?
4.
Depression, and ßThey don’t appreciate me, and I work so hard—the bastards!
5.
Acceptance. ßI’ve got to get a new job, I can’t live in this environment! The same stages
are required for burying an inferior (remember, we’re #1!) manufacturing
process so you can get a break thorough. While Dr. Ross, a Swiss physician,
defined these stages for clarity, she was a pragmatist and not nearly as
rigid as some of her critics want to describe her based on the late 1960’s
which I attended one of her seminars. Manufacturing
teams go through each of the stages of denial…acceptance as propelled by
Corporate for making major improvements.
Not all individuals and not all process survive the transition.
The purpose of the paycheck simulation is to show you how your process
is performing based on your personal
paycheck—ask this question: 
9.

Here are some MonteCarloSimulationS™ to
illustrate how the use of random numbers can solve problems in Excel^{®}
to produce useful results.

10.

Excel
Monte Carlo simulation for mean time between failures, confidence
intervals, number of samples to test, warranty failures, and Weibull analysis
for up to 10 Weibull failure modes for a series system. The ZIP file is 25 Meg in size. The simulation will store up to 500,000
iterations. A writeup for details and
results of a simulation is available at http://www.barringer1.com/feb16prb.htm
.

Other simulation software is available for: